It's always fun to create a little historical document to see what we thought would be happening in the expansion right before we know what it is.
It's Halloween of 2019, and we're currently one day away from the announcement of the expansion that will follow Battle for Azeroth.
Right now, the only really solid, practically undeniable leak is a screenshot of Bolvar Fordragon, emerged from the Frozen Throne and carrying a big maul. This was linked to on the Blizzard website for a time, which suggests that this is very much not a fake - it's not clear how it could be.
However, while there was also a "leaked" promo that identified the new expansion as Shadowlands, we haven't had the same kind of evidentiary confirmation. That promo looks very impressive, particularly its logo, which has the typical World of Warcraft expansion logo formatting but with some art elements (like a border) that are both unique and professional looking. Either it's real, or it's a very, very impressive fake.
While there are some players who still believe that we're fated for a Black Empire-themed Old God expansion, I think most of us have taken 8.3's Visions of N'zoth to be the closest thing we're getting to that, at least for now (I would not at all be shocked if some future expansion was about that.) It is, of course, possible that the Old Gods will play a key role - either in the background or center stage - within the Shadowlands, but we don't have much direct evidence that they'll continue with their current prominence after Ny'alotha.
The actual setting of the expansion remains unknown. If the promo is correct, it's a place called Bastion, though where Bastion could be is a mystery - is it another continent, another world, or a place within the Shadowlands?
Given the cinematic screenshot, it would seem Bolvar is likely to play a significant role (unless the cinematic just has him being killed - though given the introduction of his daughter Taelia in BFA, that seems unlikely.) Sylvanas, who most recently in 8.2.5 fled the Horde, leaving it without a Warchief, would make a natural player in any death-themed expansion. I personally suspect she might cause whatever inciting incident starts the expansion's plot, though her ultimate role - whether as final boss, first major raid boss like Gul'dan, or the dangerous villain we must reluctantly seek aid from - is totally unknown.
Mechanically, there are a few things people have speculated about:
First is that we might be getting a significant change to the way that factions work. This has ranged from players choosing a faction regardless of race to the ability to group cross-faction to even the full abolition of the factions as a thing except for those in War Mode or in Battlegrounds. It is possible that the peace between the two sides will be a purely story-based thing, but I'm hoping that we'll see a relaxation of the divide to allow players to group across the lines.
Another thing people have speculated about is a Level Squish. While I've heard rumors that Blizzard wanted to do this for 9.0 but are delaying it - possibly to 10.0 - I do think that there's some logic to the idea, which might also make it easier to level up without having to go through every expansion's content. We've already got a bit of that - you can choose between Outland and Northrend for your 58-80 content, likewise Cataclysm and Pandaria for 80-90.
Typically, we get a new class in every odd-numbered X.0 patch. While Necromancers and Tinkers are getting the usual speculations, another possibility people have put forth are "class skins" that would alter existing classes aesthetically without changing their mechanics, like allowing your Warlock to be a Necromancer instead and getting to summon undead instead of demons. Another possibility is that some or all classes could be getting a new specialization. The datamining of fiery Death Knight swords in 8.3 has fueled rumors that Death Knights could get a fire-based spec (actually, as someone who missed two-handed frost, if this would give us the option for a similar playstyle to that, that'd be cool!)
Lorewise, while there's a lot of evidence to suggest that we'll be dealing with death entities like the Lich King, Sylvanas, Helya, and possibly Mueh'zalla, what we definitely do not know is how they all fit together. The actual plot of the expansion and its premise is a mystery, even if we can be pretty confident about its motifs and themes.
While the "Fourth War" is over, it's clear that there are hardliners on both sides. Sylvanas is a fugitive, but she still has loyalists within the Horde (including some players) and her plots continue to turn. Meanwhile, Tyrande has likely emerged as the main Alliance instigator of further faction conflict, as she is not at all willing to just accept peace after what happened to Teldrassil. We have yet to understand the full implications of her invocation of the Night Warrior. Will Sylvanas' capture be enough to satisfy her? And will that plot even resolve in the next expansion? We don't know.
It's funny to look back on these articles and see how wrong we were sometimes, and even looking at the announcement of BFA, I noticed that I misidentified the final boss of Atal'dazar as a Nerubian, thinking they'd play a bigger role.
There are, of course, also some details that even Blizzard might get wrong. When Wrath was first announced, the Vrykul were going to be vampiric half-giants. That vampirism angle totally went away (perhaps replaced with the San'layn) and I'd assume the notion that the Vrykul were the ancestors of humanity was something they figured out later on. So even if that promo is correct, and we're going to meet the "noble Kyrians," we really have no clue what those actually are, and if they'll play the role that even Blizzard has in mind for them now.
In terms of the actual announcement, I'm relatively confident we'll be getting the full cinematic tomorrow, given the screenshot we have of it.
So, for the record:
I'm about 99.9% confident that the leaked screenshot of Bolvar is real, which suggests that he's going to play a prominent role in the expansion.
I'm about 90% confident that the next expansion will be called Shadowlands, and that the logo we've seen is real.
I'm about 75% confident that the whole promo we saw is real, with its mentions of Bastion and Kyrians and the like.
The other stuff, though, I can't really put into numbers. I'm very excited for an undead-themed WoW expansion, but I really don't have a great sense of what form it will take - I think we don't know enough about the nature of the Shadowlands to figure that out, though I think we'll know a lot better starting tomorrow.
BONUS:
I am also about 90% confident that we'll get a Diablo IV announcement tomorrow.
I'm about 85% sure that Overwatch 2 (or 2.0) is going to be announced as well, and I'm hoping it will include PvE solo content.
I'm about 65% sure that we'll get a new IP announcement.
As I write this, we're 22 hours and 19 minutes until the opening ceremony.
(Also, I predict there will be at least some drama at Blizzcon over the Blitzchung controversy. Blizzard might have walked things back somewhat, but they managed to really hurt their image.)
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