So, the whole One D&D playtest is, of course, not final. That's the whole point. But with Playtest 6, we finally went beyond the single subclass options of the previous playtests and got four for each of the seven classes - a total of 28.
There are some brand-new subclasses with the College of Dance Bard and the Circle of the Sea Druid, the former of which had already been mentioned by WotC.
So, in the interest of keeping me honest and accountable, let's look at how my predictions turned out.
Bards:
Here, I was dead-on. College of Dance, as predicted, is a melee-focused subclass that borrows elements from the Monk. The other addition here was the College of Glamour, which, as I had suggested, winds up actually striking the flavor vibe that I think most Bard players actually go for - the diva/rock star.
Clerics:
Ok, I do pretty well here. My final list for the Cleric was Life (that one was a freebie,) Tempest, Trickery, and War. That turns out to be a solid C - the only one I got wrong was Tempest Domain, where Light wound up being the actual choice.
And honestly, I think the logic behind Tempest works for Light as well. Light is perhaps not as emphatically damage-focused as Tempest, but still gets some fantastic damage spells (who can argue against Fireball?) and it also fits the Cleric aesthetic more clearly than Tempest, which does stray into that Primal magic field (though I'd also argue, what's more Divine than a Lightning Bolt? That was Zeus' whole thing!)
Druid:
Ok, Druid I basically didn't get. For one thing, I think I've been predicting more radical subclass redesigns than what we've been getting. A few have gotten big changes - the Elements Monk, outside of its general concept, is basically unrecognizable from the old Four Elements one (which was evidently the lowest-rated subclass in the 2014 PHB - and for good reason). The Land Druid is, I think, more or less an iteration upon the old version - still being the spellcasting-focused subclass, but one that I think got a little polish and a little more oomph to make it compete.
I had also predicted that the Circle of the Shepherd would make it in to focus on Summoning as a theme. Now, we've seen the use of scaling stat blocks in the "Find" spells, but these always summoned a single creature. The real question we have yet to answer is if the Conjure spells are going to work the way they currently do - basing what they summon on CR, and often summoning multiple creatures - or if they'll be reformatted more like the Tasha's "Summon" spells - which I far prefer for numerous reasons. But it's not in there.
I'd also predicted a "Circle of Wrath," that placed a strong emphasis on elemental damage spells, allowing Land to be more of a healing-style Druid. In a certain sense, Land gets to kind of play both of these roles.
So, what did they actually put in?
Well, there's the Circle of Stars, which at least currently is unchanged from Tasha's. Stars is a good subclass, and definitely has a different vibe than other Druids, and so it makes perfect sense.
There is, however, a brand-new subclass in the Circle of the Sea. Now, I'm not totally sure what I think of Sea Druids. My initial impression was that it seemed kind of cool, but I doubt it will be popular as the other options here. It seems to encourage being at close range, but you're still focusing mainly on spellcasting (as opposed to the Moon Druid, which remains focused on Wild Shape). Now, if you squint hard you could maybe consider this to be my "Wrath" Druid, but I will not be insulted if you just chalk me up as a 2/4 (and only getting the gimmes).
All this said, I enjoy the symmetry of the Druid subclasses - Land and Sea, Stars and Moon.
Monks:
Oof, another miss (I'd actually thought I did better until I checked). So, Open Hand, now simply "Hand," and Shadow I did get. But I had predicted that Four Elements was so unpopular that they'd actually cut it from the PHB. Instead, they just tore it down entirely and rebuilt it, to the extent that I think it might actually be a decent subclass now (the base class needs a bit more love, though).
Despite the fact that Way of Mercy is currently my favorite Monk subclass, I didn't think it was "core" enough in Monk class identity to make it to the list. Well, I guess I was wrong.
So, that leaves me with two incorrect predictions.
The first was Way of the Astral Self (or, what would now be called Warrior of the Astral Self). Astral Self is a subclass whose premise - the psionic, ascended, enlightened Monk - I love, but whose mechanics - which all eat through Ki (now Discipline) Points like Hungry Hungry Hippos, left me deeply unsatisfied. Astral Self is a subclass that I'd love to see them revisit and improve, and the new PHB seemed a great place to do so. And again, the idea of a Monk who, via mental, physical, and spiritual discipline, has learned to manifest powers of higher planes of existence seems totally perfect for the high-magic world of D&D.
The other was the Kensei, or something along the lines of the Kensei - a Monk who focused on weapons. But oh well, they're not in.
Paladin:
Well, the first three here were easy, I just got the wrong fourth subclass.
Here's the thing: I never really liked Oath of Glory. I found it kind of uninspiring for character-building, and it's not really different enough from the other Paladin oaths to make it feel like a meaningful choice.
The thing is, the Paladin in particular has always had this issue: it was originally a class that could only be Lawful Good, and so the type of paladin you could be was kind of narrow. The more modern conception of it has loosened that, but I think no subclass (other than the DMG's Oathbreaker, which to be fair kind of means that some part of your paladin-ness has broken) demonstrates the broader potential of the class than the Oath of Conquest.
But my sense is that WotC has decided that non-Good Paladins are too off-brand to make it into the PHB. Glory Paladins can be obnoxious and vainglorious (well, that latter descriptor might be somewhat circular in logic) but are at the very least portraying themselves as a figure of inspiration and heroism (even if that heroism is more in the Greek "really impressive" sense - fitting that they came from the Theros book initially).
So, obviously I got this wrong, but I kind of feel like WotC was the one that got this wrong. But hey, I'm just some dude with a blog.
Ranger:
Ok, did a little better on this one. Naturally, the Hunter and Beast Master weren't getting cut. And I predicted that the very popular Gloomstalker would make it in as well.
Now, perhaps my fixation on Gothic horror monster hunters has biased me, but I predicted/was hoping that the Monster Slayer would make it. Here's the thing... They kind of did? Ok, really it's that The Hunter gets Hunter's Lore, which is similar to the Monster Slayer's Hunter's Sense. The Hunter is probably sounder mechanically (the Monster Slayer suffered a bit from having a lot of really niche abilities - though I do like Slayer's Counter a lot). But the point is, I think that this kind of gives permission to treat the Hunter as being able to fill the same role the Monster Slayer does.
Now, the Fey Wanderer is the actual fourth spec. I'll confess I've never paid much attention to this one. Actually, one element of this subclass is that it has Summon Fey built into it. The subclass could change, but I wonder if those spells will simply make it into the PHB, or if Conjure Woodland Creatures will take its place (though that's a 4th level spell, and Summon Fey is a 3rd level spell).
Rogue:
Nailed this one. But then again, of the four - Thief, Assassin, Arcane Trickster, and Swashbuckler, the only one I'd argue is not a classic Rogue archetype - the Arcane Trickster - is nevertheless probably the most popular Rogue subclass and often considered the most powerful one.
So this was kind of a no-brainer. The Swashbuckler is such a classic archetype that it would be crazy to add anything else.
Overall:
Ok, so, 28 potential points to be earned - four subclasses for each of the seven classes shown here.
My final score was 21/28, or 75%. A C overall - not great, but not as bad as it could have been.
Looking Forward:
So, we have five remaining classes that have not yet gotten their second round or their additional three subclasses - the Barbarian, Fighter, Sorcerer, Warlock, and Wizard.
And, for the record, my predictions, as of when I wrote those posts months ago, are:
Barbarian: Berserker, Totem Warrior, Zealot, Storm Herald
Confidence level: So, Berserker and Totem Warrior are a lock, I'm basically certain. The others... I think that popularity plays a bigger role here than conceptual quintessence. I think I'd actually even considered Ancestral Guardian here, but now I think it's even more likely. Zealot I still think could make it, but I don't think anyone plays Storm Heralds, and so I'm far less confident that will make the list.
Fighter: Champion, Battle Master, Eldritch Knight, Rune Knight
Confidence level: This is probably still what I'd pick. Champion is confirmed, and there's no way they cut the Battle Master, but also I think basically no chance that they drop the Eldritch Knight (though please, for the love of the upper planes, let EKs use their weapon as a spellcasting focus! You did it for Valor Bards!) Now, Battle Masters are so popular that I don't really know what other subclasses are popular, but I think Rune Knights are one of the popular ones - certainly more than Samurai, Cavaliers, Arcane Archers, Psi Warriors, and *cruel, dismissive laugh* Purple Dragon Knights. The Echo Knight from Wildemount is actually really cool, but that's the one setting book (other than SCAG) that didn't see their subclasses reprinted in Tasha's, and I suspect that the fact that they don't own the Exandria IP (and that Critical Role is working on their own RPG) means they might want to edge away from incorporating any CR stuff (and might not even have the right to do so).
Sorcerer: Draconic, Wild Magic, Storm, and either Aberrant Mind or Shadow
Confidence level: Man, I don't know. I think at this point the only PHB classes losing any subclasses are the Cleric and Wizard - anyone with fewer than four is getting to keep all their existing ones. So, Draconic and Wild Magic is in. Storm, I think, is a solid choice for the third option, and has been printed twice already. Now, of the Tasha's subclasses, I know theorycrafters love the Clockwork Soul. I think that puts it in the running. But I also think the Aberrant Mind and Shadow also fit. The only other ones we haven't covered are Divine Soul and Lunar. I don't know about Lunar - with the Circle of the Moon leaning into a bit more of its moon theme, they might shy from this one. Divine Soul is certainly played, and you could very easily just say "you get access to the Divine spell list." I don't feel any strong confidence here, practically at all.
Warlock: Archfey, Fiend, Great Old One, Undead
Confidence level: So, on one hand, I think popularity has been weighted more in the decisions about subclasses here than I previously felt, and that would, I think, make the Hexblade more likely. On the other hand, Pact of the Blade has been buffed to basically do for you what the Hexblade had been doing - and all Warlocks are getting Medium armor. So, I'm probably sticking with these options. I think the Genie could possibly give the Undead a run for its money (and give us a second option that has the potential to be Good) but yeah, it might be wishful thinking, but this is what I think we'll see.
Wizard: Evoker, Conjurer, Diviner, Necromancer
Confidence level: The big question is whether they'll decide Conjurer and Necromancer are too similar as "summon" subclasses. Diviner I think is so popular that it stands a better chance of being included. Evoker we know. If I had to choose between Conjurer or Necromancer, I'd choose Necromancer, as it's such a classic archetype. Granted, if we get Undead Warlocks, this becomes less likely, as there's a lot of thematic overlap. And I think Necromancers will need to either get Summon Undead instead of Animate Dead, or Animate Dead will need to be redesigned to make it play better at the table. If they drop any of these four (well, again, Evokers are in, obviously) I could possibly see Transmuters jump in. But I'm skeptical that we'd be getting Enchanters, Illusionists, or Abjurers.
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