The Circle of the Moon Druid got some major adjustments in the 2024 PHB, but while I might have liked to see the use of animal form templates like we had in an early playtest (albeit with far higher AC, generally) the ultimate design landed somewhat closer to the 2014 version, which requires the Druid to pick wild shape forms based on existing stat blocks.
Now, it's not precisely the same - the HP and AC of these stat blocks is actually somewhat irrelevant, as Moon Druids will simply get Temp HP equal to three times their Druid level (so, 9 at level 3 and 60 at level 20) and they can swap in an AC equal to 13 + their Wisdom modifier if that would be higher than the beast's - which it almost always will be.
Still, there are a couple of things to consider:
Naturally, for utility, you'll be looking out for things like alternate movement speeds, as well as things like Flyby.
However, if we want to maximize our ability as a combatant, the primary thing we want to look at is attack bonus and damage dealt. While I'd have loved for you to be able to swap in your Spell Attack modifier if it's better than the beast (which would ensure smooth scaling,) we'll have to take this into consideration.
Another major consideration for damage, though, is the number of attacks we get. The main reason for this: at level 14, we get to add 2d10 radiant damage when we hit with one of our Wild Shape's attacks. Thus, a creature that has more than one attack multiplies this damage. Druids also have a number of spells that allow them to deal extra damage on attacks, like Fount of Moonlight and Conjure Minor Elementals. Primal Strike, in fairness, is limited to one instance of damage per turn, so the only real benefit of multiattack for that feature is that you have multiple chances to set it off - though as we know from Rogues, this can actually be a pretty big deal.
So, what I want to do is look at beast options for each CR we'll care about - Moon Druids start with CR 1 beasts, and get up to CR 6 at level 18.
Generally, I'm going to look for creatures with two or more attacks. Also, we'll exclude the animals that are now Celestials, like Giant Eagles, as these are no longer eligible. There are creatures with a single attack that are still worth looking at, like a Giant Toad or Giant Octopus, but I'm really focusing on the multiattack.
CR 1: (Levels 3-5)
Brown Bears have a +5 to hit, dealing an average of 12 damage and knocking creatures prone with their Claws (no save).
Lions also have a +5 to hit, dealing an average of 14 damage, and can replace one of these attacks with a Roar that can frighten foes. It also has Pack Tactics.
I'd say this is a bit of a toss-up, but the Lion might get the edge with slightly more damage.
CR 2: (Levels 6-8)
Saber-Toothed Tigers have a +6 to hit, dealing an average of 22 damage, and also have a bonus action to disengage or hide.
Polar Bears have a +7 to hit, dealing an average of 18 damage. They also have cold resistance, so this is an obvious option when facing cold-based monsters or being in a cold environment.
I might have to do complex math on whether the bonus to hit is better than the four extra damage, but I'm inclined to think that the hit bonus is worth it, especially when we consider spells like Fount of Moonlight.) So I'd go Polar Bear in most cases.
CR 3: (Levels 9-11)
Ankylosauruses have a +6 to hit, but with a 10 foot reach, and deal an average of 18 damage, with each hit knocking Huge or smaller creatures prone. (This is also a Huge beast).
Giant Scorpions actually get three attacks, though with only a +5 to hit, dealing an average of 30 damage and grappling targets.
This one's tricky - I'd almost be inclined to stick to the Polar Bear, except the Giant Scorpion's own baseline damage is higher and the third attack is a huge multiplier. Frankly, actually, that's the real tiebreaker. Again, the math is more complex than I want to do right now, but taking a -2 penalty to your attack bonus to get an additional attack is probably worth it before you even factor in the Scorpion's massive Stinger damage (assuming that your target takes poison damage).
CR 4: (Level 12-14)
Hippopotamuses have a +7 to hit, dealing an average of 32 damage.
Elephants have a +8 to hit, dealing 30 damage on average with those attacks, as well as a bonus action that can add extra damage if they charge and knock an enemy prone (though this is a saving throw, so you won't get the benefit of bonus damage to attacks). Also, this is another huge beast.
Archelons (a huge dinosaur turtle) has a +6 to hit and deals an average of 28 damage - the main benefit here, I think, is that they swim.
Elephants are probably the right call here. If you're in an underwater fight, the Hippo just has 30 feet of swim speed while the Archelon has 80, but if you don't need to get across the battlefield too much, the Hippo's better base damage and hit chance probably make it the better call. The Archelon does have a 17 AC, but by this level you likely have an 18 with your Circle Forms.
CR 5: (Levels 15-17)
Giant Crocodiles have a +8 to hit, dealing an average of 39 damage, though notably if the use their Bite first and hit, they'll be unable to target the creature that they have grappled and restrained by it with their tail (though my interpretation is that the multiattack doesn't force you to do things in a specific order). The tail also knocks the target prone automatically if it's Large or smaller. Again, this is a Huge creature.
Triceratopses have a +9 to hit, and deal an average of 38 damage, with a chance to get an extra 9 if they charge the target up to 20 feet (and knock them prone. Once again, we have a huge creature.
Giant Sharks have a +9 to hit, usually getting advantage because they get this if a target doesn't have all of its hit points, and deal an average of 44 damage. Naturally, they're better in the water.
The Giant Crocodile is probably the general best option. In an underwater fight I think the near-universal advantage of the Giant Shark, not to mention its base damage, is a really strong choice. On land, the restraint from the Crocodile might beat out the Triceratops' charge attack - oh, yeah, and especially given that the Croc's tail knocks targets prone anyway (and doesn't require that charge).
CR 6: (Levels 18-20)
Mammoths have a +10 to hit, dealing an average of 36 damage, with both a charge to knock targets prone and a bonus action trample that can add 29 to that (like the elephant, this isn't an attack, so won't benefit from our various buffs).
Giant Squids have a +9 to hit, dealing an average of 47 damage, along with a grapple. Naturally, they move faster in water. They also have a 1/day escape reaction in their Ink Cloud.
Well, this one's a bit of a no-brainer. Giant Squids in water and Mammoths on land.
As a reminder, I deliberately left out any creature that didn't have a multiattack. Some of these might still hit quite hard, but you'll be losing out on those multiplicative elements.
I will say, of course, that the scaling of attack bonuses is a bit pathetic compared with what a player character's own statistics should be doing - by level 17, even if you only have a +4 to your primary stat for some reason, you'll still have a +10 to hit without anything magical boosting it. That is the absolute highest attack bonus of any of these creatures, and only ones you can pick up at level 18 or higher.
Still, at the very least, you're probably going to have a reasonable AC (equivalent to someone in nonmagical heavy armor). By giving yourself 3 temp HP per Druid level, you're effectively raising your hit die by 3 slots - as if you had a d14. Multiclassing with Barbarian is still probably an option, but I'd recommend against it as you'll probably want to have a good Concentration spell running to boost that damage.
There are a couple of Beasts that are higher CR, which you'll only be able to use with a spell like Polymorph - which of course prevents you from using those nice Concentration spells (unless someone else casts it on you) and will also not function with Primal Strike.
I do think it's notable that there are at least two options for each CR a Moon Druid is going to be looking at. And again, if you are ok with losing Multiattack, there can be even more at many of these levels.
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