The Siege of Orgrimmar and the arrest of Garrosh Hellscream is one of the most profoundly important moments in the history of Alliance/Horde relations. For the first time, a non-Orc Warchief has been named. The two sides have banded together before, but never before have they done so in order to unseat one side's legitimate ruler. It also marks the end of the most wide-scoped war between Alliance and Horde the world has ever seen.
So where do we stand?
Garrosh is heading to Pandaria to stand trial for his crimes. While the Pandaren have plenty of reason to be pissed off at him, I do not think that he will be executed (the Pandaren don't seem like the type to use capital punishment.)
After playing defense for years, the Alliance can now claim a major, decisive victory against the Horde. It doesn't get much more decisive than storming your opponent's capital and taking down their leader. The Alliance has had significant losses in the past, most notably Theramore, but they have still kept most of their home territories safe from Horde aggression. After this battle, the Horde is in no position to take another inch of territory (save perhaps the Forsaken) while the Alliance has managed to secure a victory with very few losses. Throw Dalaran into the mix there and you can see that the Alliance has come out of this far ahead of the Horde.
But the Alliance does not envision global conquest the way that Garrosh had. Sick of war, and wary of the costs that might be involved in a total conquest of the Horde, the Alliance is essentially quitting while they're ahead, and giving the Horde a chance to rebuild, hopefully growing into a less aggressive neighbor.
Ideally, here's how things would go: the Alliance aids in the rebuilding of the Horde, establishing a respectful relationship between themselves and the Horde's new leadership. The Alliance takes advantage of the time of peace to shore up their own defenses, becoming impenetrable in case the Horde decides to become aggressive again. Varian gave Vol'jin a hell of a threat, and he needs to make good on that should the scenario present itself.
Meanwhile, the Horde needs to seriously re-think their position in the world. Garrosh wanted to see the Horde flag running over every inch of the globe, but that's clearly not going to happen. The Horde does have a niche if they are willing to fit into it, which is to maintain their current lands and make that a home for their people. Yes, the Horde territory was poor in resources, but if they are willing to acquire things through means other than conquest, they could easily remedy this. A rapprochement with the Night Elves, for instance, could potentially satisfy their need for lumber and food. (Let the Tauren do the talking.)
Other than the obvious dangers (Old Gods, Burning Legion, whatever else they throw at us,) there are several that could come from within that might derail these efforts.
On the Horde side, the main one would be wounded pride. After all, the most elite of the Horde's forces just suffered a crushing defeat. The Orcs in particular are going to have to get used to a diminished role within the organization they founded. The Forsaken remain a problem, as Garrosh's defeat is more likely to encourage her to be more aggressive, rather than restrain her. Finally, the Horde must answer for crimes that were not solely of Hellscream's doing. Sure, Vol'jin, Baine, and Thrall are a hell of a lot better than Garrosh, but they all played a part in some of his war crimes.
However, I think the biggest threat to peace now is more likely to be on the Alliance side. Unlike the Horde, the Alliance saw nothing bittersweet about victory in Orgrimmar. This is a pure win. Their perennial enemy is on its knees, the incursions on their land are sure to stop, if only for a time. The Alliance has proven that it is mighty indeed.
But some will not be satisfied. Some would like to see Orgrimmar razed. Gilneas remains plagued, Theramore remains a hole in the ground, and throughout the world, lands that once belonged to the Alliance races are now held by the Horde. And right now, with the Horde rebuilding its capital and its people exhausted by a difficult civil war, is the perfect time to strike.
There are some who will remember how keeping the Orcs alive after the Second War only led to betrayal, and allowing them to establish Durotar only allowed them to rise up as a threat once again.
Varian may want to dial things down and allow for a time of healing, but unlike the Horde, the other leaders of the Alliance are not necessarily beholden to the High King. Jaina Proudmoore proved that, and she of all people, who had shown seemingly infinite patience with the Horde, finally had enough following the Divine Bell incident (which was really just the last tiny straw after Theramore had put her up to the line.)
If the Alliance wants peace, they need to show a combination of strength and restraint. The threat that they could obliterate the Horde at a moment's notice must remain to keep the peace, but if smaller factions begin breaking that peace bit by bit, it will erode the peace and send us all back down the road to war.
It is, at best, an uneasy peace. But given what is out there, I think both sides would be well-served by trying to make it last.
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