Massive upheaval was the name of the game for the past two expansions, though that had been the case somewhat in Wrath as well (newer players who knew that Stormwind didn't used to have a harbor might have assumed that was a Cataclysm addition, but it actually came in Wrath.) One of the things that's kind of interesting, though also a bit frustrating, is how our journey to Draenor will mostly be leaving Azeroth behind to go about its own business for a while. Cataclysm saw familiar zones totally overhauled and stories jump forward in progression. Mists did take us away from our home territories a bit, but the action all came back to familiar lands - particularly for Orcs and Trolls, who saw their home zone and capital city become the central point of conflict. Mists was, in many ways, an interesting trick - one that I liked, actually. Pandaria seemed so utterly foreign and different when we arrived, but the more we found out, the more familiar it got, with the Old Gods and the Titans playing prominent roles, and the climax to the expansion taking place beneath Orgrimmar itself.
Warlords of Draenor appears, at least for now, to be far more isolated. It's a little early to predict the whole trajectory of the expansion at this point, but I suspect that the events of the expansion are really going to be limited to Draenor. The aftermath of the Siege of Orgrimmar and the peace treaty signed between the Alliance and Horde does not appear to be in focus. While more and more Azerothian forces arrive as you establish yourself on Draenor, I don't foresee anything like 5.1's Landfall happening - you are part of an expedition, and not a full-scale deployment. Your forces are a small elite group that is going to gather material and allies in Draenor, rather than opening the way for your forces to back you up. And one thing that's nice for those of us who preferred the "grudging cooperation" between the factions in Vanilla, BC, and Wrath over the all-out war in Cataclysm and Mists, is that the two sides are small enough teams headquartered far enough away from one another that there's really no reason to squabble (except in Ashran, which is just because they needed to do something PvP focused.)
But we're also going to see basically nothing of Vol'jin or Varian. Really, other than a few figures, like Khadgar, Thrall, and Maraad, we're really not getting anyone super-important from Azeroth to come with us. The Velen we interact with is not our Velen. That prophet is presumably still at the Exodar. Thrall is obviously no longer Warchief, and with the Cataclysm dealt with, he doesn't have to stick around as World Shaman either. Sure, it might have been better to bring someone like Saurfang, who actually, you know, knows Draenor, but I can understand why Thrall would be really eager to see what Draenor was like.
So what is going on back home?
There was quite a lot of chaos that happened during the last few in-game years. Most of it is because of Garrosh, either directly or indirectly. After the war in Northrend, there was a serious power-shift. Under Hellscream's leadership, the Horde expanded aggressively and totally industrialized. Territory expanded in just about every direction, but in response, the Alliance invaded the Barrens, laying siege to Mulgore and striking at the soft underbelly of the Horde. With Theramore destroyed, I'm not sure that the Alliance was able to do much in the Barrens during the Pandaria campaign. Overall, while they did gain some territory, Hellscream's leadership has really wound up costing them any of the advantages that they had post-Northrend.
The Alliance is still struggling, but while the Horde practically collapsed in on itself, the Alliance is holding. The destruction of Theramore was a devastating blow, but it was also the last serious defeat they would suffer during the war. Garrosh had pushed Sylvanas into more aggressively spreading into Lordaeron, which she did with gusto, but the invasion of Gilneas was not quite as successful as, say, Hillsbrad. While there's little there to indicate so to an Alliance player, Gilneas is basically holding against the Forsaken. Silverpine is essentially all Horde territory now, but the Greymane Wall, shattered though it is, does effectively mark the border, albeit a shifting a porous one, between Horde and Alliance ground. But Gilneas is not a functioning country anymore, with the civilian population in exile. The only people there are Alliance forces who are trying to establish a permanent foothold, and it's going to be a while before the Gilneans can move back in.
Despite these difficulties, the Alliance has been growing its membership. When Moira Bronzebeard returned from Blackrock Depths, the fear was that she intended to essentially lead a coup to install the Dark Irons as the chief controllers of Ironforge, which could of course jeopardize the status of one of the absolutely core members of the Alliance. However, as time has gone by, Moira has proven herself to be a loyal leader, and while many of the Dark Irons remain loyal to Twilight's Hammer, a large number of them are now reintegrating into the greater Dwarven, and by extension Alliance society.
Likewise, the Night Elves have finally decided that it's time to let the Highborne come back and practice Arcane magic as long as it's done responsibly. I don't know if it's such a huge population, as most of the Highborne sailed east and became the High Elves and then the Blood Elves, but it can't hurt.
Now Dalaran is of course a cause for some controversy. During the worst of Garrosh's abuses, Varian Wrynn and Lor'themar Theron had been engaged in very, very secretive talks. The Blood Elves had, of course, been members of the Alliance at one time, and while there were absolutely some old bitternesses about the way that the Blood Elves were treated post-Third War, it wasn't as if it was any worse than Garrosh. The Blood Elves have also been separated from family - those High Elves who were in human territories during the Scourge invasion might actually be a pretty big population. In the era of Hellscream's brutality, it didn't really make any sense for the Blood Elves to be in the Horde, rather than the Alliance (which, in the meantime, and become far more tolerant and diverse anyway.)
Unfortunately, the actions of a small few can make things much harder for everyone else. Despite losing Theramore, Jaina had largely been able to separate the actions of Hellscream from those of the Blood Elves in Dalaran. However, when it became clear that the Mogu's Divine Bell had been stolen from its safe place in Darnassus by Sunreaver Agents, she drew a line. And perhaps that was too broad a line. Jaina locked down Dalaran and began imprisoning anyone in the Sunreavers - effectively any Blood Elf or just any Horde people in Dalaran. The thing that's so frustrating about this is that she wasn't entirely wrong in her convictions. It's pretty clear that Aethas Sunreaver - the leader of the Sunreavers - was involved in that plot. But by broadly arresting any Blood Elves - or killing those who resisted arrest - she stirred up all the old resentments and torpedoed those talks that Varian and Lor'themar had engaged in.
Many Blood Elves are likely still in Violet Hold, and that's something that needs to be taken care of. However, the upshot of this is that, while the Alliance lost the opportunity to not only regain an old ally but also deprive the Horde on one at the same time, Dalaran itself has reverted to being a purely Alliance force and institution. Is it a good trade? Well, one wonders. If the Blood Elves were to flip over, Dalaran would probably be Alliance by default anyway. Now, however, the Alliance has got to deal with a complex situation where they need to let those Blood Elves go at some point, but they need to do it in such a way that it does not threaten to bring up tensions again (actually, immediately post-Orgrimmar would have been a great time, but I don't know if Jaina would have been up for that.)
Speaking of prisoners: Sylvanas currently has one of the key members of the Knights of the Ebon Blade in her own dungeons, being "re-educated" after fraternizing with members of the Alliance (really just his fellow Death Knight.) This is kind of a big deal. For one thing, whose jurisdiction is Koltira Deathweaver under? One could argue that he should answer to Darion Mograine, but given that the Ebon Blade is a neutral organization, he shouldn't have been participating in the battle for Andorhal in the first place (same with Thassarian.) But if he's a member of the Horde, would he not be representing Silvermoon? Yes, he's Undead, but with the exception of Sylvanas and her Dark Rangers, the Forsaken are primarily undead humans. It's not as if anyone Undead defaults in loyalty to the Forsaken (for one thing, half of them are members of the Alliance.) And even if, by serving as a commander of Forsaken forces, he did wind up under Sylvanas' command, one still wonders - is the Horde cool with brainwashing as a disciplinary action?
Garrosh attempted to reign Sylvanas in, but the Forsaken seem more aggressive and dangerous than ever. There's really no long-term solution for them. Most probably wish they'd just gradually die out and let living people repopulate Lordaeron, but it's clear that Sylvanas does not have anything like that in mind. Essentially, she wants her own little slightly-less malevolent Scourge to live there forever. But unless you can get humans to go volunteer for a Forsaken afterlife (which seems unlikely,) her vision is going to require a pretty horrific abuse of the very concept of Free Will.
Luckily, despite the bloodshed there, Kalimdor actually seems to have a more thoughtful peace process going on. Tyrande has agreed to allow the Horde uncontested control of Azshara. The question then becomes Ashenvale. Azshara's strategically important given the huge harbor there, but the Horde's main source of lumber in Kalimdor is just west of there. The Night Elves are presumably interested in halting the logging of Ashenvale, which could be a problem, especially given that post-Siege, the Horde's probably going to need to rebuild. Still, the Night Elves are in a good position to reestablish themselves throughout much of Kalimdor. The question, as it is for the Alliance from now on, is one of restraint.
The Horde itself is going to be going through a bit of chaos. Orgrimmar was devastated by the Siege, and it's likely that the former Kor'kron or just ordinary Orcish supporters of Garrosh, are going to be really upset about the fact that they have to bow down before a Troll as Warchief. The Darkspear have just gotten elevated to a position of incredible power, but that also makes them targets. I would be very curious to see how the Horde interacts with the Zandalari from here on out. The Orcs are now somewhat leaderless as a race. Thrall does not seem to want to be that figure for them anymore. While many I'm sure will adjust to Vol'jin, there's a lot of dangerous racial pride among the Orcs, which could threaten to cause some big problems.
Hopefully the peace treaty will allow the Tauren to open up Mulgore once again, and perhaps they will be able to resume their ties with the Night Elves (no two races on opposite factions are so close. Seriously, I think the Tauren are closer to the Night Elves than they are to the Undead.)
Depending on how things go in Draenor, it's possible that Azuremyst and Bloodmyst Isles are about to get a huge immigration. With SPOILER, some of the Draenei of the other universe might decide to move to Azeroth, though the reverse is also a possibility. No one has really made much mention of the fact that the Exodar is once again functional, but it's possible that that remains a closely-guarded secret, perhaps known only to a select few.
Fundamentally it looks like the balance has seriously shifted from the early days of Garrosh's tenure as Warchief. When he started, he got the Alliance on its heels while the Horde pushed forward. But now, there's been a massive backward swing, and the Horde is left trying to pick up the pieces. The Alliance then has a major choice to make. Do they take this time to consolidate and reinforce their own territories, or do they try to establish a permanent domination of the Horde. Some, like Jaina, have lost all faith in the Horde's ability to coexist peacefully, and believe that by allowing them to rebuild, they are only ensuring another Warchief Hellscream some time later. But Varian has a different outlook, and is seeking to establish more of the kind of cooperation that existed when Thrall was Warchief - but this time, with a little more transparency and fairness. Varian values restraint, but his critics would call it hesitation. The Alliance has great power now, and could very likely crush the Horde if they wished, but instead, they are hoping that a healthy Horde will mean a peaceful Horde, and a potential ally for the other, far greater threats when they show up.
Only time will tell which course is wiser.
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