I've said many times on this blog that my preferred style of fantasy is actually pretty unconventional: while I love Lord of the Rings, the other fantasy epic that imprinted itself upon me is Stephen King's Dark Tower series, which takes place partially in a post-apocalyptic world that has sort of reverted to a kind of Wild West that is haunted by demons and monsters, and partially jumps between different time periods in a slightly different version of New York City (I think it was meant to be our NYC, but King accidentally placed some housing projects that one of the characters was from in Brooklyn instead of the Bronx and then just rolled with it).
I've also found that a lot of my own fiction adheres to ideas that have been sort of loosely categorized as the New Weird, which kind of describes an ambiguous mix of sci fi, horror, and fantasy.
Anyway, since the 2014 DMG, I've found the existence of modern and futuristic firearms to be a really cool element to add to the game. As a caveat, or perhaps just an odd note, in the real world I'm very against my country's failure to do any serious regulating of guns despite all the violence we experience. But this is fiction, which makes it very different.
Renaissance weapons were moved from the DMG to the PHB. These were always fairly in-line with other weapons (while they have higher damage dice than most other ranged weapons, they also have short ranges, and you'll need a feat from Tasha's to cancel their loading property. They're also very expensive. So, I think they're reasonably balanced against other options (arguably even too penalized).
Modern and Futuristic weapons, though, are just plain better than other weapons. The weakest modern weapon, the Semiautomatic Pistol, hits as hard as the strongest weapons in the PHB, the Maul and Greatsword. Each modern weapon uses two damage dice (the aforementioned Maul and Greatsword are the only others in the PHB that do so,) which naturally means quite a lot more damage.
Ranged weapons did get a bit of a nerf in 2024 with the change to the Sharpshooter feat. It lost the -5/+10 option to sacrifice accuracy for damage. While its melee equivalent, Great Weapon Master, got a different damage buff to compensate, Sharpshooter did not, and no longer directly affects your damage at all.
While it's not wonderfully optimal, as GWM buffs only Strength, not Dexterity, you can take the feat to benefit the two Heavy ranged weapons, the Longbow and Heavy Crossbow, which will give you a very nice damage boost to the weapons, but it leaves other ranged options somewhat behind.
Ranged weapons have actually always been a little bit niche as a weapon type - historically only four classes, the Artificer (and then only the Battle Smith), Fighter, Ranger, and Rogue, really had much of a use for them. This is slightly improved by the transformation of True Strike, which used to be so crap it's not even worth talking about, but now lets you use your spellcasting ability to make an attack with a weapon rather than Strength or Dex. Because Clerics and Druids can now get martial weapon proficiency (though they need to find some alternative way to get this cantrip) these weapons can actually be somewhat good for them as well.
Still, I think it's worth acknowledging that ranged weapons are more likely to be niche than melee weapons, as most of D&D's ranged-capable classes rely more on spells than weapons.
But for those classes, the power of a more advanced ranged weapon is worth taking a look at.
Another caveat, though: no firearm has the Heavy property, so none will benefit from Great Weapon Master. The damage, though, might compensate for this.
It's recommended in the DMG that you treat modern firearms as Rare items, and Futuristic ones as Very Rare.
+2 Weapons are Rare and +3 Weapons are Very Rare, so I wanted to run them up against equivalent magic weapons.
We're going to imagine a character who is level 10, perhaps a Fighter. These weapons don't have Loading, but instead Reload, which gives you a few to several shots before you need to use an action or bonus action to reload. At level 3, this might start to present an issue to a Fighter with three attacks, though only, I think, for the Shotgun and Antimatter Rifle, who have Reload 2.
We can assume that this Fighter has capped their Dexterity at this point and also picked up Great Weapon Master or Crossbow Expert.
We'll start by comparing their damage with a rare +2 weapons against modern firearms. Then we'll compare them using +3 weapons versus futuristic firearms. This will be against a target with an AC of 15.
We're going to do all of the advanced firearms, just to get a sense of at what point (if any) they truly match the damage of the rare magic item. Modern Firearms go from 2d6 (Semiautomatic Pistol) to 2d8 (Automatic Rifle, Revolver, and Shotgun) to 2d10 (Hunting Rifle). Futuristic firearms are 3d6 (Laser Pistol,) 3d8 (Laser Rifle) and 6d8 (Antimatter Rifle).
We'll also assume they took Archery as their Fighting Style, and they have not used up a feat on any others. Thus, before magic bonuses, they have a +11 to hit with their ranged weapons.
Modern vs Magic:
+2 Hand Crossbows:
Using Crossbow Expert, they can attack as a bonus action with an off-hand Hand Crossbow, and they get to ignore loading and can even load their weapons with both hands occupied. Thus, we should be getting two attacks off with our main-hand, and then one bonus action attack with the off-hand. Thanks to the feat, we still get to add our Dex to that crossbow, so it's effectively just three shots of equal value.
We have a +13 to hit, so we only miss on a 2 or lower, giving us a 90% hit chance. Our hit damage is 1d6+7, or 10.5, and adding 3.5 on a crit. 10.5x90% is 9.45, and 3.5x5% is .175, so our total damage per attack is 9.625. With three attacks, that's 28.875 damage.
Crap, I forgot Vex.
You know what, let's skip masteries for the time being. The Hand Crossbow is thus a bit better than it looks.
+2 Heavy Crossbow:
We will need to have both GWM and Crossbow Expert to do this, but as Fighters have three general feats by this level, we can definitely achieve that. We also have a 90% hit chance (same as the Hand Crossbow... other than the advantage we get from Vex. Sigh). Our hits land for 1d10+11 (5 from Dex, 4 from GWM, 2 from the weapon), or 16.5.
16.5x90% is 14.85, and then our crit bonus is 5.5x5%, or .275, so our total damage per attack is 15.125, giving us a total damage per turn of 30.25.
Semiautomatic Pistol:
The weakest, maybe, of the modern weapons, this deals 2d6 on a hit, but it also has Vex. Sadly, we can't go full John Woo with them, as they are not light weapons (technically we could fire from two weapons if we use one of our attacks on each, but it's no better than using a single weapon).
Without the magic bonus, we're now at an 80% chance to hit (+11 to hit), which will remain true for all modern weapons. Our damage with the pistol is going to be 2d6+5, or 12 average, and a crit bonus of 7.
So, 12x80% is 9.6, and 7x5% is .35, so we have an average damage per shot of 9.95, which doubles to 19.9 with our two attacks. Again, vex helps here (if I have the energy at the end of this post, I'll go back and account for that). This puts us actually well behind the other two without a feat or magic bonus to boost that damage (we could try this without feats, though I think especially in 2024 D&D, you're going to want feats, especially as a Fighter).
Automatic Rifle, Revolver, and Shotgun:
These weapons all deal 2d8 on a hit. The math will be very similar (and no Vex to worry about). Given that that's only about 2 more damage per hit on average, I am skeptical that this will make much of a difference. Notably the Automatic Rifle, exclusively, has the Burst Fire feature that might give it an edge, but we'll stick to single-target damage.
Our hit damage is 2d8+5, or 14 on average, and our crits add 2d8, or 9 on average.
14x80% is 11.2, and 9x5% is .45, so we get 11.65 per attack, for a total damage of 23.3. Again, not really keeping up here, and I'm skeptical that the Hunting Rifle is going to do better enough.
Hunting Rifle.
Same basic deal, but our damage is now 2d10+5, or 16, with an extra 11 on a crit.
16x80% is 12.8, and 11x5% is .55, so we get 13.35 per attack, and thus 26.7 damage per turn. This is slowly creeping up on our +2 pre-industrial weapons, but still a bit behind.
So, the modern weapons, without a magic bonus or a feat that supports them, are not quite keeping up. One thing I will say is that if you can get access to these as an Artificer, who might struggle a bit more to get those feats, and more importantly, who might actually be able to get a +1 or +2 version of the weapons, will probably fare a little better. The extra damage and hit chance will have a notable increase to overall damage, but I'm not sure it would be enough to outdo the benefits of these feats. Again, something to revisit if I have the energy.
Magic vs Futuristic:
Futuristic weapons are meant to be equivalent to Very Rare magic items, the simplest of which are +3 weapons. We're now going to be falling further behind in our hit chance with the energy weapons, but I think the extra dice will start to overcome the benefits the magic weapons get. But let's see. We'll need to re-do the magic weapon calculations.
+3 Hand Crossbow:
We do run into the following wrinkle - a +3 weapon with the Archery fighting style at this level has a +14 to hit, meaning we can only miss on a natural 1 against an AC of 15. I actually think this is fine - we're not "wasting" any of our attack bonus (which we would if we had a +15 to hit, because we'd have the same chance to hit as if we had a +14 because nat 1s always miss on attacks). I don't remember if having a more even hit/miss chance really changes the relative values. The +3 weapons are still hitting 15% more often than the mundane ones, in terms of total hit chance.
We're not changing the build here, just the equipment, so we still have Crossbow Expert, meaning three attacks with the Hand Crossbow (two main hand, one off hand), and thanks to the feat, we're still adding Dex to the off-hand strike, making all three attacks more or less the same. (Though Vex complicates it, of course, but we're ignoring that for now).
Once again, we now have a 95% hit chance (the best we'll ever get, barring advantage) and our damage is slightly higher, now 1d6+8, or 11.5, with the same crit bonus as before (.175). 11.5x95% is 10.925, plus our crit bonus of .175 is 11.1. With three attacks, that's 33.3.
+3 Heavy Crossbow:
Likewise, we're at a 95% hit chance and now dealing 1d10+12, or 17.5. Also, like before, our crit bonus (5% times 1d10) is .275.
So, 17.5x95% is 16.625, and we add that .275 to get 16.9. Two attacks gives us 33.8.
Laser Pistol:
Fun fact, I gave the Rogue in my original campaign a Laser Pistol, and he made it his whole personality. Anyway, Laser Pistols deal 3d6 Radiant damage on a hit. They also have the Vex property, which will for sure complicate this if I go back to do them and the other Vex weapons (might be as a separate post). We still only have an 80% chance to hit without the magic bonus, and our hits will now land for 3d6+5, or 15.5. Our crit bonus is an additional 10.5
So, 15.5x80% is 12.4, plus 10.5x5%, which is .525, gives us 12.925. Two attacks makes that 25.85, so we're actually still lagging behind even the +2 weapons, and even the Hunting Rifle (which I guess makes sense, because 2d10 is a slightly higher average than 3d6).
Laser Rifle:
Not an enormous change here, as we just go up from 3d6 to 3d8. That means our hits are 18.5 and our crit damage is now 13.5.
18.5x80% is 14.8, and 13.5x5% is .675, so we get 15.475 per attack, and thus 30.95, meaning we're now finally overtaking the +2 weapons, just barely.
Antimatter Rifle:
Ok, now we're talking about the big guns. The Antimatter Rifle is, by far, the hardest-hitting weapon type in the game, dealing 6d8 necrotic damage on a hit - twice the damage of the Laser Rifle if you ignore bonuses. 6d8 is an average roll of 27, so dear lord if anything could beat the magic weapons, it's got to be this. (Also, this has a reload of 2, so as Fighters at level 11 and higher, we start running into a fun juggling game of having to reload as a bonus action between shots, and in a long enough fight, or if we use Action Surge, we might have to miss a shot here and there.)
Ok, so, 80% hit chance. We deal 32 damage on a hit, and add another 27 damage on a crit. (dude.)
So, 32x80% is 25.6 (and we're basically already done, because two of those is going to way-outpace anything else - we're almost caught up with one attack and I haven't even factored in crit damage) and then 27x5% is 1.35, giving us a total damage per hit of 26.95, and a total damage per turn of 53.9, just utterly blowing away all other possibilities.
The Takeaway:
The guidance in the DMG is to treat these modern and futuristic weapons as the equivalent of pretty powerful magic items. We've been comparing them with weapons of the rarity that the book suggests. That means that we shouldn't expect them to wildly outperform the magic ones, but also that they shouldn't wildly underperform.
I guess I was surprised that nothing before the Antimatter Rifle overcame the magic weapons in their category. I also think that the lower-damage weapons are actually quite a far bit behind their suggested category.
I suspect that the main culprit is not the magic bonus, but the feats attached to the weapons. Because no firearms can take advantage of either Crossbow Expert or Great Weapon Master, you're left behind a bit.
Barring such feats, it might be better instead to compare them to magic Muskets. (We'll skip Pistols, though they do have Vex, which actually might make them deal more damage overall than Muskets). These will need the Gunner feat to fire multiple times per turn, but that doesn't increase their damage compared to our more advanced firearms.
+2 Musket:
Ok, back at it, we've got a 90% chance to hit, and our attacks do 1d12+7, or 13.5 damage, with a crit bonus of 6.5.
So, 90%x13.5 is 12.15, and 5%x6.5 is .325, so we are doing 13.825 per attack, or 27.65, which is just barely shy of the Hunting Rifle. Still beats all the other modern weapons, but at least it's not beating all of them (though only just barely).
+3 Musket:
Now at 95% hit chance, we're just doing 1 more damage per hit than before, so 14.5.
14.5x95% is 13.775, and then the same .325, so we get 14.1 per attack, or 28.2 per turn. Boy, the equivalent of +1 to Dex is getting us less than 1 point of damage more to turn. Maybe I've got to reevaluate how important it is to cap my stats? More importantly, this still outdoes the Laser Pistol, but now falls behind the Laser Rifle (and of course, the Antimatter Rifle is king).
So, yeah, the really big factor is that the two feats that can really enhance a ranged weapon user's damage don't interact with any of these weapons. If you aren't using those, the advanced firearms do keep decent pace with magical medieval/renaissance weapons reasonably.
Now, one factor that I didn't consider here is the Vex property, which is a nightmare to calculate (I'm sure an Excel spreadsheet could make it simple, but I'm just a guy doing napkin math here). Every pistol, barring the Revolver (those do count as pistols, right? A pistol is just a gun you can hold in one hand, right?) has Vex. And I think the high rolled damage of these more advanced firearms benefits a little more from Vex because their crits are proportionately a bigger bonus than weapons that only use a single die.
I think a Champion Fighter, with their expanded critical hit range (especially at high levels, when it becomes a 15% chance) would maximize this benefit, and I'd be curious to see if a the Semiautomatic or Laser Pistols actually overtake the magic options. The Hand Crossbow of course also gets Vex, but their crits aren't as powerful because proportionately more of the damage is coming from your Dexterity and magic weapon bonus (a Hand Crossbow's crit is only adding 3.5 on average, while a Laser Pistol is adding 10.5).
I think I might revisit this looking specifically at how Vex weapons fare when the mastery is taken into account, and possibly even look at it with an expanded crit range.
Last takeaway before I end this rambling post: While the DMG tells you to treat these advanced firearms as magic items, I think you have a little leeway to also present magical versions of them. The +X bonuses don't actually amount to an enormous boost in damage, of course, but I think it might bring them at least a little closer to parity.
Actually, one last take: the other option would be to find or create some new feats that can benefit firearms. I'm skeptical we'll see any from official WotC releases, but I think there's definitely some fertile ground for such a thing for an unconventional setting. I might try my hand at one some time, given that my setting has a broad mix of technological strata.